“No one wants to catch a falling knife.”
As we drove around looking at property, this was the philosophy one Canadian shared with me regarding his take on the average buyer. “Once it clangs on the floor, everyone will know it has hit bottom and then everyone will scramble to buy." His own strategy was different. He was not about to wait. Even though he was unsure if further price declines were to come, he had a fantastic selection of homes to choose from and he knew he was getting a great price not seen since 2003. He bought. But there is another potent case for buying now.
Finance costs will rise as the economy recovers, so trying to time real estate might not pay off.
Consider this example. A $500,000 Siesta Key condo purchased today, with 20% down, leaves $400,000 financed at about 6% over 30 years. That's a monthly P&I payment of $2,398.
If prices drop an additional 10%, the cost of this condo next year is $450,000. But when the recession ends and the Fed starts to raise rates to say, 7.5%, your monthly payment would be $2,517. If you waited a year to buy, you would have saved nothing and spent one less year in your beach side condo.
When prices are falling, few people have the discipline to buy stocks, a house, art or any other asset. But those who do pull the trigger excel in the long run.
What's with all those headlines ?
Considering all of the negative press the housing market received in late 2007, it's more important than ever for people to separate fact from fiction when deciding on a time to buy or sell a home. The fact is, we were due for, and are now experiencing, a natural cyclical correction. The recent "housing boom" which lasted from 2001 until 2005, was caused by low interest rates and a rapid increase in property valuations. This combination prompted a high sense of urgency in home buying and selling. Poor lending practices, which caused many home
buyers to secure loans that they ultimately couldn't afford, also fueled the fire. Finally, and possibly the biggest culprit here locally, speculative purchases of homes by investors hoping for a quick return on investment took us over the top.
But are these problems so deep that recovery is years away ? Actual facts and history say no.
Let's start with lending practices. Unlike the media's portrayal, the reality is that subprime loans comprise only 9% of total loans nationwide and of those 9%, less than 11% of those subprime ARM and fixed borrowers have defaulted on their loans. Problematic, yes. Of epidemic proportions, no.
As for speculators, like the dot-com bust, the housing market has begun to correct itself after a number of years of unwise purchasing. But unlike what the media would have us believe, a correction in the housing market doesn't equate to a crash. The ongoing negative news about the most troubled areas in the U.S. has caused a ripple effect, with home buyers and sellers on a national level exercising caution before making a decision.
What we are seeing now is a repeat of a housing cycle we've seen before. In the early 1980's and 1990's some areas of the country experienced the worst downturn they had seen in the last 25 years. It was caused by localized economic weaknesses and a loss of jobs. But on a nationwide average others, like the Pacific Northwest, were barely affected at all. Even those areas hit the hardest in the past experienced a historic uptick in prices, and then a continuing long term appreciation trend followed
It is our belief that we in Sarasota are actually positioned quite nicely. According to the latest statistics - issued the last week of March by FAR - Sarasota-Manatee once again outsold such mega-markets as Miami and Ft. Lauderdale, building on a solid trend that held throughout every month of 2007 and continues thus far into 2008.
We simply need our inventory of homes and condos to decline to more acceptable levels.
The avalanche of east coast baby boomers on the horizon may well be the cure for our local recovery.
Lawmakers will look at more tax cuts in 2008.
On January 29, 2008 Florida Voters approved Amendment 1, which made significant changes to the Florida Constitution regarding property tax laws. These include an additional $25,000 Homestead exemption, and portability of the Save Our Homes benefit. (Although too detailed for this newsletter, feel free to e-mail us for a 3 page recap of the specifics of all changes.) Governor Charlie Crist, top lawmakers and other backers promised it would be just the start of property tax relief. Let's hope so. For non-homesteaded owners the government put a modest 10 percent cap on annual assessment increases. That's not enough to satisfy out of state owners who saw
their tax bills increase the most due to sharp rises in property values in recent years.
The Sarasota Association of Realtors (and all similar associations in Florida) will continue to press for true relief for the second home/vacation
type owner.
It will happen. We will keep you updated.
Patrick Doherty, Joe James, Michael James, Maureen James Doherty
April 2008
James Brothers Real Estate Team
Realtors
info@jamesbrothers.com
www.JamesBrothers.com
(your on-line resource)
Local: 941-993-6443
Toll free: 1-888-755-2637
Friday, April 25, 2008
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
April 22, 2008
*The following press release was sent to local media on April 22 at
Noon.
March sales in Sarasota top 500 for first time since July 2007
Pending sales highest in a year, indicating improving market for summer
Overall property sales in the local market for March 2008 topped 500 for the first time in eight months, according to statistics pulled from the Sarasota MLS system. There were 514 property sales reported in the Sarasota MLS, easily topping the February 2008 sales of 423.
There were 344 single family homes sold by SAR members in March 2008, along with 170 condominium units. This compares to 294 single family sales in February and 129 condominium sales, which means March saw an overall increase of 21.7 percent over February.
Single family homes saw a small decline in the median sale price, from $285,000 in February 2008 down to $266,750 in March 2008 - a 6.3 percent decline. But condominiums saw a small increase in the median sale price from $230,500 in February 2008 to $235,000 in March 2008.
"Once again, the local Sarasota market is proving its resilience, even as the state and national housing market statistics continue to show weakness," said Helen Sosso, 2008 SAR President. "It is remarkable how our local real estate practitioners are weathering this downturn, and proving once again the value of a professional Realtor® during difficult times. As we've been saying for more than a year, this is a prime buyer's market, with historically low interest rates, moderating prices, and an incredible, high quality inventory of homes on the market."
One of the continuing bright spots in the March 2008 report was the strength in pending sales, which stood at 674 - the highest level in the past year. In March 2007 pending sales were at 706. Pending sales have been edging upward since December 2007, when there were 374 pending sales.
Pending sales counts the number of signed contracts in a month, and is a leading indicator of sales activity. There is a direct correlation between pending sales and closed sales that are reported in the following month or two.
Inventory levels were lower in March 2008 at 10,025 single family homes, compared to 10,596 in March 2007, and down slightly from February 2008, when there were 10,035. Condominium levels also decreased from the March 2007 level of 6,180 to 5,702 in March 2008, but up slightly from the February 2008 level of 5,588.
The days on market, which translates to the average time it took to sell a property, was at 152 days for single family homes, slightly higher than the 144 days in March 2007, but lower than the 160 days in February 2008. Average days on the market for condos was 181, a healthy drop from the 199 days reported in March 2007, and much lower than the 219 days in February 2008. The days on market reflects a quicker pace of sales, meaning the size of the current inventory should begin to decline going forward.
The local Sarasota-Bradenton MSA continued to fare better than the overall state. The MSA was down by 15 percent for single family home sales and 17 percent for condominiums, comparing March 2008 to March 2007. For the overall state, single family homes declined 26 percent comparing March 2008 to March 2007, and condominium sales were down 24 percent month to month.
In fact, the smaller Sarasota-Bradenton market again sold more overall properties than the Miami market. There were 1,022 overall sales reported for the local MSA, compared to only 609 in Miami.
The median sale price dropped by 18 percent for single family homes, and by 32 percent for condominiums in the MSA. This compares to 15 percent and 20 percent statewide in the two categories, respectively.
Sarasota Association of REALTORS
*The following press release was sent to local media on April 22 at
Noon.
March sales in Sarasota top 500 for first time since July 2007
Pending sales highest in a year, indicating improving market for summer
Overall property sales in the local market for March 2008 topped 500 for the first time in eight months, according to statistics pulled from the Sarasota MLS system. There were 514 property sales reported in the Sarasota MLS, easily topping the February 2008 sales of 423.
There were 344 single family homes sold by SAR members in March 2008, along with 170 condominium units. This compares to 294 single family sales in February and 129 condominium sales, which means March saw an overall increase of 21.7 percent over February.
Single family homes saw a small decline in the median sale price, from $285,000 in February 2008 down to $266,750 in March 2008 - a 6.3 percent decline. But condominiums saw a small increase in the median sale price from $230,500 in February 2008 to $235,000 in March 2008.
"Once again, the local Sarasota market is proving its resilience, even as the state and national housing market statistics continue to show weakness," said Helen Sosso, 2008 SAR President. "It is remarkable how our local real estate practitioners are weathering this downturn, and proving once again the value of a professional Realtor® during difficult times. As we've been saying for more than a year, this is a prime buyer's market, with historically low interest rates, moderating prices, and an incredible, high quality inventory of homes on the market."
One of the continuing bright spots in the March 2008 report was the strength in pending sales, which stood at 674 - the highest level in the past year. In March 2007 pending sales were at 706. Pending sales have been edging upward since December 2007, when there were 374 pending sales.
Pending sales counts the number of signed contracts in a month, and is a leading indicator of sales activity. There is a direct correlation between pending sales and closed sales that are reported in the following month or two.
Inventory levels were lower in March 2008 at 10,025 single family homes, compared to 10,596 in March 2007, and down slightly from February 2008, when there were 10,035. Condominium levels also decreased from the March 2007 level of 6,180 to 5,702 in March 2008, but up slightly from the February 2008 level of 5,588.
The days on market, which translates to the average time it took to sell a property, was at 152 days for single family homes, slightly higher than the 144 days in March 2007, but lower than the 160 days in February 2008. Average days on the market for condos was 181, a healthy drop from the 199 days reported in March 2007, and much lower than the 219 days in February 2008. The days on market reflects a quicker pace of sales, meaning the size of the current inventory should begin to decline going forward.
The local Sarasota-Bradenton MSA continued to fare better than the overall state. The MSA was down by 15 percent for single family home sales and 17 percent for condominiums, comparing March 2008 to March 2007. For the overall state, single family homes declined 26 percent comparing March 2008 to March 2007, and condominium sales were down 24 percent month to month.
In fact, the smaller Sarasota-Bradenton market again sold more overall properties than the Miami market. There were 1,022 overall sales reported for the local MSA, compared to only 609 in Miami.
The median sale price dropped by 18 percent for single family homes, and by 32 percent for condominiums in the MSA. This compares to 15 percent and 20 percent statewide in the two categories, respectively.
Sarasota Association of REALTORS
Thursday, April 03, 2008
Siesta Point project renewed
Sarasota Herald Tribune
By Toni Whitt
Published Thursday, April 3, 2008 at 4:30 a.m.
SARASOTA COUNTY — After being stalled for more than a year, Benderson Development Co. is moving ahead with plans for Siesta Point, a proposed high-density, mixed-use development at U.S. 41 and Stickney Point Road.
Neighbors have been complaining for months that the former mobile home park has become an eyesore at one of the most prominent gateways to Siesta Key.
Today, Paul Blackketter, a project manager with Benderson, is scheduled to meet with homeowners in the Siesta Key Association to detail plans for the 25-acre site, which could include retail, residential, hotel and office development.
Developers and county planners say Siesta Point could become a trend-setter for intensive "new urbanism" redevelopments which are likely to crop up all over the region.
As a first step, Blackketter intends to lay out details for a planning meeting that would include residents, county officials, architects, planners and Benderson representatives. The session -- known as a "charrette" -- would allow input from all the players as far as design and density.
That meeting would take place in late spring or early summer.
"I want to develop a good, positive relationship with the people in the neighborhood," Blackketter said.
Benderson officials say Siesta Point has been stalled as they awaited changes to the comprehensive plan, the county's blueprint for growth.
The plan has to be amended before the developers could do the kind of urban infill they want, said Blackketter and Mark Chait, Benderson's director of Florida leasing.
In the meantime, Benderson has hired security and fenced off the site and put up opaque panels to try to quell residents' frustration.
"We can't clear it until we know what we can do with it," Blackketter said. "And we can't know until the county develops the tools and methods to be able to develop it."
Sylvia Weiss, a Midnight Pass Road resident who has voiced her concerns to both the county and to Benderson, is looking forward to today's meeting.
"The county has been touting Siesta Beach and Turtle Beach, and to have visitors pass that trailer park is just a disgrace," Weiss said. "Until there's movement, I would rather see an empty lot there. I can't see how difficult is is to get permits to get rid of those trailers."
Weiss embraces the idea of improvements to the area, but she fears that Benderson has been so busy with its University Town Center project that the company has all but forgotten about the 25 acres leading to Siesta Key.
But from the beginning Benderson officials said they wanted to use the tools of "new urbanism," which calls for developments to include places where people can live, work and shop, without ever having to own a car.
Matt Lewis, a county planning manager, said a public hearing on the changes is expected for May.
Then the specifics would be sent to the state and, if approved, would come back to the county.
The new zoning could be approved and included in the comprehensive plan in the fall. Each new development would then have to go through a separate rezoning, including public hearings.
It is an undertaking that has been two years in the making with Siesta Point as the first real project in the works.
In that time, Southwest Florida's economy has been in a downturn largely because of the real estate slump. But Benderson, a private company with deep pockets, has continued with projects along University Parkway and now Siesta Point, something the company says is evidence of its faith in the region's long-term housing and retail prospects.
It also demonstrates a belief that Siesta Point fits in with the community's need for "new urbanism" projects, Benderson officials said. Such projects can be highly profitable because increased density and diversity of uses allows developers to maximize the land they buy.
Under Benderson's proposal, the 25-acre project would include a 220-room hotel, 265,000 square feet of retail and 575 homes, along with office space and parking. That would all be near public transportation and include affordable housing for people who want to work within the district.
Under the proposed zoning, Siesta Point would have to include interconnected streets and routes for pedestrians and bicyclists, tree-lined streets, a neighborhood park, architectural diversity and space.
The idea is to create a sort of self-contained downtown or a center of commerce.
"It gives you a sense of place," Blackketter said. "Instead of driving to get goods and materials you can walk. You can bike, walk or catch the bus for anything you want."
But nothing is final. The new zoning requires the charrette so that neighbors have an opportunity to help design a project that has less impact on them.
For Weiss, the Midnight Pass resident, that means no high-rise buildings, though she likes the idea of apartments and a hotel: "Something that makes it nice."
Lewis, the planning manager, said Siesta Point-like redevelopments are likely to happen in many areas of Sarasota County during the next several decades.
"What we're looking at is making it possible for all major commercial centers to rebuild in this manner," he said. "In the next 20 or 30 years, all of them will rebuild."
Sarasota Herald Tribune
By Toni Whitt
Published Thursday, April 3, 2008 at 4:30 a.m.
SARASOTA COUNTY — After being stalled for more than a year, Benderson Development Co. is moving ahead with plans for Siesta Point, a proposed high-density, mixed-use development at U.S. 41 and Stickney Point Road.
Neighbors have been complaining for months that the former mobile home park has become an eyesore at one of the most prominent gateways to Siesta Key.
Today, Paul Blackketter, a project manager with Benderson, is scheduled to meet with homeowners in the Siesta Key Association to detail plans for the 25-acre site, which could include retail, residential, hotel and office development.
Developers and county planners say Siesta Point could become a trend-setter for intensive "new urbanism" redevelopments which are likely to crop up all over the region.
As a first step, Blackketter intends to lay out details for a planning meeting that would include residents, county officials, architects, planners and Benderson representatives. The session -- known as a "charrette" -- would allow input from all the players as far as design and density.
That meeting would take place in late spring or early summer.
"I want to develop a good, positive relationship with the people in the neighborhood," Blackketter said.
Benderson officials say Siesta Point has been stalled as they awaited changes to the comprehensive plan, the county's blueprint for growth.
The plan has to be amended before the developers could do the kind of urban infill they want, said Blackketter and Mark Chait, Benderson's director of Florida leasing.
In the meantime, Benderson has hired security and fenced off the site and put up opaque panels to try to quell residents' frustration.
"We can't clear it until we know what we can do with it," Blackketter said. "And we can't know until the county develops the tools and methods to be able to develop it."
Sylvia Weiss, a Midnight Pass Road resident who has voiced her concerns to both the county and to Benderson, is looking forward to today's meeting.
"The county has been touting Siesta Beach and Turtle Beach, and to have visitors pass that trailer park is just a disgrace," Weiss said. "Until there's movement, I would rather see an empty lot there. I can't see how difficult is is to get permits to get rid of those trailers."
Weiss embraces the idea of improvements to the area, but she fears that Benderson has been so busy with its University Town Center project that the company has all but forgotten about the 25 acres leading to Siesta Key.
But from the beginning Benderson officials said they wanted to use the tools of "new urbanism," which calls for developments to include places where people can live, work and shop, without ever having to own a car.
Matt Lewis, a county planning manager, said a public hearing on the changes is expected for May.
Then the specifics would be sent to the state and, if approved, would come back to the county.
The new zoning could be approved and included in the comprehensive plan in the fall. Each new development would then have to go through a separate rezoning, including public hearings.
It is an undertaking that has been two years in the making with Siesta Point as the first real project in the works.
In that time, Southwest Florida's economy has been in a downturn largely because of the real estate slump. But Benderson, a private company with deep pockets, has continued with projects along University Parkway and now Siesta Point, something the company says is evidence of its faith in the region's long-term housing and retail prospects.
It also demonstrates a belief that Siesta Point fits in with the community's need for "new urbanism" projects, Benderson officials said. Such projects can be highly profitable because increased density and diversity of uses allows developers to maximize the land they buy.
Under Benderson's proposal, the 25-acre project would include a 220-room hotel, 265,000 square feet of retail and 575 homes, along with office space and parking. That would all be near public transportation and include affordable housing for people who want to work within the district.
Under the proposed zoning, Siesta Point would have to include interconnected streets and routes for pedestrians and bicyclists, tree-lined streets, a neighborhood park, architectural diversity and space.
The idea is to create a sort of self-contained downtown or a center of commerce.
"It gives you a sense of place," Blackketter said. "Instead of driving to get goods and materials you can walk. You can bike, walk or catch the bus for anything you want."
But nothing is final. The new zoning requires the charrette so that neighbors have an opportunity to help design a project that has less impact on them.
For Weiss, the Midnight Pass resident, that means no high-rise buildings, though she likes the idea of apartments and a hotel: "Something that makes it nice."
Lewis, the planning manager, said Siesta Point-like redevelopments are likely to happen in many areas of Sarasota County during the next several decades.
"What we're looking at is making it possible for all major commercial centers to rebuild in this manner," he said. "In the next 20 or 30 years, all of them will rebuild."
Tuesday, April 01, 2008
Don't miss your opportunity to purchase your dream Sarasota home or condo
We have seen too many times lately buyers losing out because they took their time to put in an offer....this seems strange .....we know.....this market is suppose to be dead....no one is buying.
NOT TRUE...If a property is priced right put in an offer. And even if it is not....put in an offer.
Sellers are coming way off of their asking price and if they don't come down right away they most likely will. The market is dictating it. Don't be shy to give it a try !
Contact us at 1888-755-2637 or 941-993-6443
Let's make a deal !!
NOT TRUE...If a property is priced right put in an offer. And even if it is not....put in an offer.
Sellers are coming way off of their asking price and if they don't come down right away they most likely will. The market is dictating it. Don't be shy to give it a try !
Contact us at 1888-755-2637 or 941-993-6443
Let's make a deal !!
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